50 billion for one device! IGBT domestic manufacturers have accelerated "on board"
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Update time : 2022-08-19 09:52:12
IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor), Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor, is by BJT(Bipolar junction Transistor, that is, Transistor) and MOSFET(metal-oxide semiconductor field effect Transistor) two kinds of composite structure of the full control voltage driven power semiconductor device. IGBT has the advantages of high input impedance of MOSFET, fast switching speed, small control power, simple driving circuit, small switching loss, low conduction and current of BJT, large on-state current and small loss. Therefore,IGBT with low driving power and low saturation voltage is a kind of power electronic device suitable for medium and high power applications. Currently,IGBT is widely used in the medium and high voltage field of 650-6,500V, which is the most promising track in the field of power devices. In addition, due to the different application scenarios of downstream consumer electronics, new energy and rail transit, the required IGBT voltage is also different. According to the voltage division, IGBT includes ultra-low voltage, low voltage, medium voltage and high voltage, etc., and the needs of different application fields are different. Among them, new energy vehicles, industrial control, household appliances and other IGBTs are mainly medium voltage, while rail transit, new energy power generation and smart grid have higher voltage requirements and mainly use high voltage IGBTs. According to Strategy Analytics, power semiconductors for pure electric vehicles are worth $330 (2,100 yuan) per cycle. General A00 passenger car IGBT single value of 800 yuan, A class electric vehicle IGBT single value of 2000 yuan. At present, some high-end models adopt all-wheel-drive system (such as Ideal One), and the four-wheel-drive system adopts two electronic control modules. It is estimated that the single-cycle value of IGBT of four-wheel-drive models reaches 3,200 yuan. Considering the influence of the annual decline of IGBT procurement in normal years, it is estimated that the single-cycle value of IGBT of new energy vehicles will be maintained at 1,700 yuan.
White power field: IGBT is mainly used in frequency conversion air conditioning, frequency conversion refrigerator, frequency conversion washing machine, the main products are IPM and IGBT single tube. In 2020, China's household variable frequency air conditioners shipped 83.37 million units, with a penetration rate of 58%; China's variable frequency washing machines sold 26.27 million units, with a penetration rate of 42%; China's variable frequency refrigerators sold 25.06 million units, with a penetration rate of 30%. In 2020, the global IGBT market reached 6.7 billion U.S. dollars (45.9 billion yuan), and the IGBT market in China reached 2.6 billion U.S. dollars (17.9 billion yuan), excluding the market demand in the fields of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage and white electricity. We estimate that the global market size of other fields (mainly including industry, rail transit, power supply and other fields) is 30.3 billion yuan, and the Chinese market size is 8.1 billion yuan. It is expected that the global and other fields in China will grow steadily at a growth rate of 4% and 6% in the future, corresponding to the global market size of 369 billion yuan and 44.9 billion yuan in 2025 and 2030. China's market size reached 10.9 billion yuan, 14.6 billion yuan.
Since 2020, the demand side has benefited from the outbreak of demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, while the overseas epidemic on the supply side has repeatedly restricted overseas production capacity. The supply and demand of IGBT have been unbalanced, and the delivery time and price of large overseas factories have continued to rise. In the context of short supply, the process of localization rate depends on the speed of capacity release, and the localization rate is expected to reach 37% in 2022. From the perspective of the leading IGBT capacity planning of the domestic IDM model, the capacity of 8-inch wafers of BYD Semi-Guide and CRRC Times will double in 2022. From the perspective of the IGBT capacity planning of domestic Fab plants (Huahong Semi-Guide, SMIC Shaoxing and Advanced Manufacturing), the growth rate will be more than 60%. From the perspective of capacity data, It is estimated that the domestic production capacity will increase by 90%+ in 2022. We estimate that the IGBT revenue of domestic listed companies is expected to double and the domestic production rate will reach 37% in 2022.
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