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Car core shortage will continue, the crux is here

Update time : 2022-09-01 11:20:01

This year, the shortage of cores in the consumer electronics and industrial communication industries has basically eased, but the automotive industry is still short of cores, and it is expected to continue for a long time.

According to Wang Shengyang, founder, chairman and general manager of Nanochip Microelectronics, the electrification of automobiles leads to the demand for power system chips alone being twice that of fuel vehicles, and the demand for chips due to intelligence is 8-10 times that of the original. The annualized increase in demand for automotive chips is expected to be close to 20%, while the global 8-inch wafer production capacity growth rate is about 4%, and only some of them can be made into automotive-grade products.
This may be the crux of the lack of core in the automotive industry.
In the next few years, due to the continuous high growth of demand and geopolitical factors, it is expected that the supply of chips in the automotive industry will continue to be tight, but on the bright side, the domestic chip industry chain-related companies are growing rapidly.
On August 26, Wang Shengyang attended and delivered a speech at the World New Energy Vehicle Conference (WNEVC 2022) technology research forum - "Technical breakthrough and industrialization development of automotive-grade chips".
As a chip company that entered the automotive industry earlier in China, Wang Shengyang's observations and experience come from the front line of the market. Wang Shengyang has his own opinions on the demand and supply changes and trends of chips in the automotive industry, the problems and future of the domestic chip industry: When talking about automotive chips, the topic that cannot be avoided in recent years is that automobiles are undergoing very rapid changes. , This change is mainly in two major directions, one is new energy from the power structure, and the other is intelligent.
The automotive industry is rapidly transitioning from a mechanical product to an electrical product, and then from an electrical product to an intelligent product. This is our understanding of the background of the automotive industry. This background has brought about a very important trend. As the car slowly turns to electrical products, especially to smart products, its demand for chips and semiconductors is actually increasing very rapidly. When the power system of a car changes from a fuel car to a pure electric car, the demand for chips in the power system part alone is at least twice that of a fuel car. If the car slowly evolves from a non-smart car to an L4/L5 smart car, the demand for chips will probably increase by 8-10 times. Taking a luxury car as an example, we calculated that the BOM of the fuel vehicle version in 2019 is about US$640, and the pure electric vehicle version is expected to reach US$2,875 by 2025 (only battery management and powertrain are included here). system, does not include chip BOMs corresponding to different intelligence levels).
In just a few years, with the traction of the two trends of electrification and intelligence, the use of single-vehicle semiconductors and the amount of BOM have both increased rapidly. While the number is increasing rapidly, an important trend is that the structure of semiconductors is also undergoing great changes.
From the perspective of typical chip categories, the composition structure of traditional fuel vehicles is relatively balanced, and the MCU, power semiconductors, and sensors are not much different, but in pure electric vehicles, the biggest change is that the proportion of power semiconductors will increase rapidly (the proportion of power semiconductors from 21% to 55%). So what kind of problems will the increase in the proportion of power semiconductors bring? In fact, the consumption of wafers will further increase, because power semiconductors are devices that consume more wafers. Automobiles have the most serious shortage of cores in all industries. In fact, the most important reason is that with the rapid changes in the automobile industry, the demand for chips is rapidly increasing.
Judging from the situation from 2022 to 2024, in just two years, it is predicted that the total number of chips for automotive semiconductors will increase from 156.7 billion to 213.5 billion, with a compound growth rate of about 17%. If you look at the purchase amount, it is probably a very huge number. The annualized growth rate is close to 20%, which is actually a very rapid increase, and it can be seen that the growth trend will continue.

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