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In the semiconductor industry in 2022, the giants are making a big bet on expanding production

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Update time : 2022-08-12 10:34:12
        Looking back over the past decade, the semiconductor industry has experienced three upward cycles: the rise in semiconductor demand driven by the popularity of 4G mobile phones in 2013-2014; The rapid growth of smartphone and data center demand in 2016-2017 drove the rapid increase of storage particle demand; In 2020, the rise of 5G mobile phones and the spread of COVID-19 unexpectedly drove the "stay-at-home economy" of home work and home entertainment, which promoted the rebound of the demand for PCS, tablets, TVS and other consumer electronics on the demand for all kinds of semiconductors. The gradual intensification of trade friction between China and the United States from 1H18 to 2020 led to the largest decline in the global semiconductor industry in the past decade.       Corresponding to the weak shipment, mobile phone manufacturers have opened the mode of cutting orders. Xiaomi, OPPO and Vivo will cut orders by about 20 percent in the next few quarters. Domestic phone makers have already cut orders for more than 200 million phones this year. Samsung, meanwhile, has cut its shipment target for this year by about 10%.
        The second landmark was a rare shift in orders by TSMC's three biggest customers. Mass production of apple's iPhone14 series has begun, but the target for the first 90 million units has been cut by 10 percent. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia indicated to TSMC that they had to adjust their order plans due to the sharp decline in PC market demand and the waning of the "mining" craze. Among them, AMD cut its order for 7/6 nanometer of about 20,000 tablets from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2023, while Nvidia requested to delay and scale back its order for the first quarter.
        In addition, chip giants have also started to pessimistic. Texas Instruments has told customers that supply shortages will ease in the second half of the year and price hikes for analog chips such as power management chips may end, according to dealers. When it reported its first quarter in April, Intel had already given downbeat growth guidance for the second quarter, expecting sales of all types of semiconductors to fall amid falling demand for consumer PCS. Rapid growth of new-energy vehicle sales led to the explosion of automotive semiconductors. Set Bang consulting data shows that 2022Q1 global sales of new energy vehicles 200.04 million, a year-on-year growth of 80%. Inventory turnover days for automotive semiconductor companies remain historically low. In mid-May, Infineon said its order backlog (including unconfirmed orders) for the first three months of 2022 rose 19.4% month-on-month to 37 billion euros. Stmicro's 2022 capacity has also been sold out, with an order backlog of about 18 months; At the same time, the order of Ansen Mae vehicle IGBT is full, and will not accept orders for the time being. It can be seen that the demand for traditional electronic products is shrinking, the demand for HPC and automotive electronics is strong, and the semiconductor market shows the characteristics of structured growth. Much of the expansion by semiconductor makers is aimed at non-consumer sectors, trying to get ahead of the curve.
        The inflection point of this round of semiconductor cycle has come to the end of demand fatigue, cut the single tide sweeping the semiconductor industry. However, semiconductor manufacturers continue to expand madly in spite of the downward cycle, not afraid of overcapacity? Are they crazy? No, not only are they not crazy, they're making a lot of noise. In the chip from a comprehensive shortage to structural shortage stage, semiconductor manufacturers have focused on high growth areas - cloud, server, high-performance computing, automotive and industrial control, and use the "counter-cyclical investment" killer technology, to seize the technological plateau, to obtain capacity advantage, which is their crazy expansion of the important rely on. Therefore, this seemingly "contradictory" supply and demand relationship behind the semiconductor manufacturers of the industry direction and competitive landscape of important considerations, not a temporary passion.


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