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Semiconductor industry inflection point expected in 2023

Update time : 2022-08-30 16:05:49

According to Wall Street News, the US analog chip giant ADI recently issued a price adjustment letter to its distributors, saying that "due to the inflation of the supply chain in the past year, although we tried our best to reduce the impact on end customers and did not raise prices, now we must increase the price of some parts of chip products to maintain our gross profit margin level." ADI emphasized that the price increase is not to expand profit margins.

So, from the perspective of industrial prosperity, is there a turning point in the semiconductor industry? Many fund managers believe that the cyclical inflection point of the semiconductor industry may appear next year, but there may be structural opportunities in semiconductor equipment and materials.
Semiconductors will still maintain a relatively rapid growth trend in 2022, but 2023 may be in a cycle inflection point, and year-on-year revenue growth may slow down. In 2022, due to the huge year-on-year multiple growth data generated by machines every year, as well as the annual demand for 20% CAGR of analog chips and various chips with 20% CAGR increase in electric self-driving cars and servers, semiconductors are still in the market. in the context of structural stock-outs. However, in 2023, it may be expected that the delivery time of various short-material chips will be shortened, the number of months of global/domestic chip inventory will be adjusted, and the capacity expansion of "12" mature processes will exceed the increase in demand, resulting in the global logic chip industry's year-on-year revenue. Growth is slowing.
Lion Fund pointed out that at the current point in time, the market sentiment of the semiconductor sector is still at a low level, and the scissors gap between fundamentals and stock prices is getting bigger and bigger. However, from the perspective of sub-sectors, although the valuation of the semiconductor equipment and materials sector fell sharply at the beginning of the year due to the impact of interest rate hikes in the United States and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, its performance still maintained a high growth performance.
In the next stage, under the blessing of triple multiplier effects such as the acceleration of domestic wafer fab expansion, the increase in the localization rate of equipment and materials, and the increase in the amount of equipment and materials brought about by new technologies, this sector is expected to usher in a three-to-five-year high performance boom. cycle.

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