According to market analyst firm Semiconductor Intelligence, the global chip market will contract by 6 percent by 2023, but there is a risk of further downside.
This is much more optimistic than the 22 percent contraction predicted by Malcolm Penn and Future Horizons. Semiconductor companies cite weakness in the personal computer and smartphone markets as the main factor behind the expected revenue decline in the third quarter of '22. Smartphone shipments are expected to fall 7 percent in 2022 after growing 6 percent in 2021. Semiconductor Insights, citing IDC data, said the smartphone market will grow 5 percent in 2023. On the PC side, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, growth of 15% in 2021, IDC forecasts a decline of 13% and 3% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Semiconductor Intelligence also takes into account global GDP growth and forecasts that a 3 percentage point slowdown in GDP growth will result in a 16 percentage point slowdown in semiconductor market growth. semiconductor Intelligence forecasts 5 percent growth in 2022, slightly below Future Horizons' forecast of 6 percent.
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