SEMI forecast: the global semiconductor industry will invest more than $ 500 billion in new factories by 2024
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Update time : 2022-12-25 17:32:55
Recently, SEMI in its latest quarterly "world fab forecast report" (WorldFab Forecast), announced that the global semiconductor industry is expected to start construction between 2021 and 2023 in 84 large-scale chip manufacturing plant investment of more than 500 billion U.S. dollars, including automotive and high-performance computing market segments will drive spending growth. The growth is expected to include 33 new fabs starting construction this year and 28 new fabs expected to be added in 2023.
The World Fab Forecast Report shows that from 2021 to next year, 18 new production lines will be built in the Americas, 17 fabs will start construction in Europe and the Middle East, 14 new fabs/production lines will start in Taiwan, China, 6 new fabs/production lines will start in Japan and Southeast Asia, 3 large fabs/production lines are expected to start in South Korea, and 20 fabs/production lines are expected to support mature processes in mainland China. China is expected to have 20 plants/production lines supporting mature processes.
Since the second half of 2021, major fab companies have increased their investment in fab construction due to the global chip shortage. So far this year, the major foundries are still maintaining a high momentum of investment in fab construction. Earlier this year, Intel announced that it would invest US$100 billion in the United States to build the world's largest chip manufacturing base in Ohio; in March, Intel said it planned to invest more than 33 billion euros to boost its European chip production capacity, including the construction of two factories in Germany's Maderburg. in July, Grosvenor and STMicroelectronics announced that they would build a new semiconductor manufacturing plant in France, which is scheduled to go into full production in 2026. TSMC, the world's largest chip foundry, held a ceremony this month to move its new plant in Arizona, U.S. The total investment in the project is $40 billion, with the first phase planned for mass production of 5nm advanced process chips and to 4nm, and the second phase planned for mass production of the current state-of-the-art 3nm process chips.
The current production capacity of the United States accounts for 10.3% of the global chip manufacturing capacity, Europe accounts for 7.7%, Japan accounts for 17.6%, South Korea accounts for 15.9%, and the layout of the new production line construction of chip majors, and the global scope of major countries are still competing for chip manufacturing capacity is closely related. In an interview with China Electronics News, Mr. Rixin Bu, general manager of Chuangdao Investment Consulting, said that the deployment of capacity in different regions is related to the development level of wafer manufacturing in each region. He said that the current wafer manufacturing line construction in most regions, but also for the purpose of filling the short board, subject to the level of technology, talent supply and downstream market demand restrictions, line construction to mature processes. High process line construction is still mainly controlled by TSMC, Intel, Samsung and a few other big head factories.
For the current phenomenon of large-scale investment in the field of wafer manufacturing, industry analysts are of the view that we should look at it calmly and rationally. In Teng Ran's view, in the short term, the global semiconductor market is still in the downward phase of the silicon cycle, part of the terminal machine product chip demand contraction. Step Rixin also said that the current global demand for electronic information are facing a weak trend, and this trend may continue for a longer period of time. Although the current demand for electric vehicles is positive, but its role in driving the overall semiconductor market is limited, so far there is no real stimulation of demand for new markets. It is still an open question as to when semiconductors will be able to usher in a major reversal of the cycle. As for the current trend of increasing investment in fixed assets presented by the fabs, Bu Rixin believes that this is related to the characteristics of the semiconductor industry itself: the semiconductor industry has counter-cyclical investment characteristics, investment in the industry downturn to reserve development momentum, for practitioners, if you do not do enough capacity reserves, once the subsequent industrial reversal to good, there is a risk of being overtaken by competitors.
