Augmented reality (AR), a technology that combines virtual information with the real world; Virtual reality (VR) is a technology that simulates virtual environments to give people a sense of environmental immersion. AR/VR can be widely used in entertainment, exhibition, design, education, medical, industrial, aerospace, military and other fields, with a broad market prospect. At present, the concept of the metaverse is popular. AR/VR is one of the core technology architectures of the metaverse, and the market space is further increasing. In AR/VR products, the chip is the core device, so the development of AR/VR chip industry is concerned.
Around 2015, AR/VR technology has attracted much attention, but due to the bottlenecks in hardware and content, the application of superposition rigidity is unclear, and the market development is slow. In the past two years, driven by the development of 5G, artificial intelligence and other industries, the AR/VR market has been developing at a faster pace. With the concept of the metaverse proposed, the international Internet and semiconductor giants have entered the metaverse field layout. As one of the core technology architectures, AR/VR is facing new development opportunities, and its market scale growth is expected to further accelerate. In the early days, AR/VR chips were mainly made from smartphone chips, such as Qualcomm's Snapdragon series. However, there are differences between AR/VR functions and smartphone functions, and it is difficult to meet the requirements of AR/VR by using smartphone chips for secondary design. With the rapid growth of the AR/VR market, the design and production of dedicated AR/VR chips have attracted much attention. At present, many manufacturers have entered the market layout of dedicated AR/VR chips at home and abroad. Tianfeng analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has previously revealed that major Android phone brands in China have cut orders by about 170 million units so far this year, or about 2 percent of their original global shipping plans for 2022 Kuo recently tweeted that Meta has cut its 2022 metacverse hardware shipment forecast by 40%, from 10 million to 11 million units to 7 million to 800 million units The news came out, causing a great uproar, Goer shares and other industrial chain related company stock prices fell sharply. The next day, however, Kuo corrected his forecast in response to pressure, saying that his previous forecast was based on research and judgment, and that it was his personal forecast, not an official one The correction reads: Meta's Meta-universe hardware/headphone shipments are forecast to be 25% to 35% lower in 2022. Today's metaverse is like being in a "period of turbulence", where even a breeze can cause waves, and the sound of waves will return to calm. Despite Mr. Kuo's second correction of the forecast, Meta still lowered its order volume overall. At this important inflection point in the outbreak of the industry, the behavior of the leading companies to cut orders, will undoubtedly cause the capital market to worry about all links in the industrial chain.In fact, Meta revised the order mainly because the company spent a lot of money on subsidies in the early stage. It is normal to reduce subsidies and lower shipping expectations in the future. What's more, this is just the company's regular business adjustment in response to the global economic recession and inflation caused by the epidemic and other factors, which will not have any impact on the long-term development trend of the metaverse. In terms of market size, the AR /VR industry develops rapidly due to the influx of industry giants and the addition of capital. According to the latest report from IDC, the total investment scale of the global AR /VR industry in 2021 was close to $14.677 billion, which is expected to increase to $74.730 billion by 2026, at a CAGR of up to 38.48%. From the perspective of value chain, the intergenerational change and value chain transfer of the technology industry conform to the law of "infrastructure - hardware - software - platform - application and service". Therefore, in the early stage of the metaverse, hardware devices are the basis for accessing VR/AR experience from the perspective of current technology and requirements, and the development logic is smoother. Meta's Quest product has the first-mover advantage, and the domestic industry also has certain technical advantages in hardware. The current opportunities mainly lie in upstream components, OEM and OEM. Specifically, the upstream components include optical and display module (optical lens, display screen, camera, etc.), computing module (chip, etc.), acoustic module (speaker, etc.), interaction module (sensor, etc.), etc. As you can see from the Quest2 dismantling diagram, the chip and display optical module are the most important hardware in VR equipment. Among them, chip accounts for nearly 50% of the cost of terminal equipment, followed by display modules, including LCD and OLED, which account for 20%-25%, and optical modules, such as lenses and cameras, which account for 6%-10%.
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