AMD 2023 x86 Server CPU Share is Expected to Exceed 22%
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Update time : 2022-11-03 11:46:27
According to the latest research by TrendForce, the mass production schedule of the new Sapphire Rapids has been postponed due to the poor yield of Intel7, and it is estimated that the current production yield of Sapphire Rapids is only 50-60%. The mass production schedule has been postponed from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of 2023. The delayed production schedule not only affects the ODM preparation cycle, but also significantly reduces the proportion of OEMs and CSPs importing Sapphire Rapids this year. AMD will be the biggest beneficiary of this delay, with AMD's market share of x86 server CPU shipments estimated to be around 15% in 2022 and expected to exceed 22% in 2023.
AMD has significantly increased its ABF carrier board capacity since the second half of 2021, and at the same time, more and more end-users are inclined to use single-socket servers in consideration of the total server cost of ownership (TCO). It will also be more conducive to AMD's sprint for shipments.
In addition to the problem of weak demand in the general environment, Intel is facing challenges such as frequent rumors of low-level FPGA shortages, which affects its dual-socket CPU orders, as well as the weakening demand from government bidding and pressure from OEMs to lower their inventory levels.
The delay in the mass production schedule of Intel's new products can be seen from the ODM orders that CSP majors rely on AMD to increase, as AMD Milan's overall server machine cost is lower than Intel Ice Lake, and AMD Milan's RDIMM expandability and SSD channels are better, and do not have to follow Intel's dual-socket standard design, that is, to achieve the customer's Customers are able to save capital expenditure more effectively.
In addition, in the short term, the market share of Intel x86 server CPU shipments in the past two quarters has declined by nearly 6% compared to the same period last year, mainly due to a significant shift in orders from U.S. CSPs, including AMD Milan-X shipments to stimulate U.S. CSPs such as Microsoft and Meta's pulling power. In the long run, as enterprises and governments are taking ESG into consideration, energy saving performance will become one of the keys to procurement decisions. Therefore, TrendForce believes that AMD will see indicative growth in 2023, and estimates that the market share of AMD x86 server CPU shipments will reach 25% in the fourth quarter of next year, up 7% year-over-year.
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