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Intel Revisits Moore's Law: The Cycle Is Slowing Down But Not Dead

Update time : 2024-01-08 10:51:04

Moore's Law was first proposed by Intel co-founder and CEO Gordon Moore in 1970. Gordon Moore, co-founder and CEO of Intel, first proposed it in 1970, saying that the number of transistors on a chip would double every two years as the density of new processes continued to increase, but because the semiconductor industry has lagged behind the Moore's Law trend to a certain extent, many, including NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang, have said that Moore's Law is dead.

Since Pat Gelsinger took over as Intel's CEO in 2021, he has been emphasizing that Moore's Law is still valid, and even believes that Intel can surpass the speed of Moore's Law at least until 2031, and is promoting "Super Moore's Law," a strategy to increase transistor counts by utilizing 2.5D and 3D chip packaging technologies (such as Foveros). Intel often refers to this as Moore's Law 2.0.
Asked about the potential end of Moore's Law in a recent speech at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Gelsinger said, "We've been declaring Moore's Law dead for about 30, 40 years. We're no longer in the golden age of Moore's Law, and it's much harder now, so it's probably closer to doubling every three years and also seeing a slowdown."
Despite the apparent slowdown in Moore's Law, Intel will still be able to make chips with 1 trillion transistors by 2030, Gelsinger said, while the largest chip on a single package currently has about 100 billion transistors. It also follows that new RibbonFET transistors, PowerVIA power delivery, next-generation processes and 3D chip stacks will make all four of these things possible.
However, Gelsinger also acknowledged that Moore's Law faces economic challenges. 7 or 8 years ago, a modern fab cost about $10 billion, and now that the cost has grown to $20 billion, the economic aspect has taken a different turn.

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