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The Third Quarter NAND Flash Wafer Contract Price Decline Expanded to 30~35%

Update time : 2022-09-03 10:45:24

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, the timing has entered the second half of the third quarter. The lack of peak season has led to a delay in destocking, and the NAND Flash market transactions have been frozen. Buyers are passively watching and tend not to bargain. Turn to opening break lows for a deal. This move will further lead to a decline in the price of the original factory. TrendForce once again revised down the contract price of NAND Flash wafers in the third quarter, and it is estimated that the decline will be expanded to 30-35% from the original estimate of 15-20%.

In the past two years, the epidemic has promoted digital transformation, and notebook computers and servers have stimulated rapid growth in the consumption of NAND Flash. In order to meet the demand, the original factory has been actively expanding, and the process has accelerated the output of 128-level or more. However, with the sharp correction in the order demand for smartphones and laptops, the NAND Flash market situation in the second half of 2022 has deteriorated sharply, showing an oversupply situation. Looking forward to 2023, the conservative attitudes of various consumer electronics brands may lead to the difficulty of improving the supply and demand market conditions in the next year, which will stimulate suppliers to step up to seize market share.
According to TrendForce, due to the continued price decline in the second half of the year, the possibility of some manufacturers cutting production increases, which may trigger another wave of consolidation in the market. In particular, the number of suppliers has not decreased, and the price of NAND Flash will fluctuate greatly in the long run. At the same time, some manufacturers may find it difficult to keep up with the speed of technology transfer as the transition to higher-level technology production will increase capital expenditure. Therefore, TrendForce believes that this wave of price collapse may be caused by market consolidation beginning.
Looking forward to the price of NAND Flash wafers in the fourth quarter, as the original factory has implemented the strategy of maintaining market share regardless of cost in advance, the contract and spot market wafer prices are facing a collapse. Therefore, TrendForce expects that NAND Flash wafers may drop by another 20% in the fourth quarter, and as the industry tends to negotiate prices in a merger between the fourth quarter and the subsequent first quarter, the decline will continue to expand amid rising inventories and freezing demand. possibility still exists.

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