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Apple AMD Nvidia rush to place AI chip orders? TSMC's second quarter revenue decline expected to narrow

Update time : 2023-02-01 09:42:25

Competition in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is fierce, and technology giants have stepped up their stockpiling.
On January 30, Taiwan Economic Daily reported that Apple, AMD and Nvidia have recently been rumored to have placed rush orders for TSMC, and the chips will be gradually produced after April, making TSMC's traditional second quarter "off-season".
Industry sources point out that the current PC (personal computer) and other products to inventory pressure, mainly affecting TSMC 6, 7 nanometer capacity utilization, but in Apple, AMD, Nvidia accelerated AI layout, related accelerators and chip design applications mainly to TSMC 5 nanometer family process production, making TSMC 5 nanometer family capacity utilization is still expected to be supported.
In November 2022, ChatGPT, a chatbot launched by OpenAI, exploded all over the internet and harvested over 1 million users in less than a week. The chatbot can simulate human conversations based on user prompts, answering a large number of questions while mimicking human speaking styles.
ChatGPT is considered to be the most successful AI chip application, but at the same time ChatGPT application needs high-end arithmetic chips to support it. The industry mentioned that from the viewpoint of arithmetic power, ChatGPT has imported at least 10,000 high-end NVIDIA GPUs (graphics chips), and will be updated and upgraded this year to enhance arithmetic power due to the accelerated adoption by subsequent US corporate customers, with NVIDIA, as the global leader in AI, just about to start sprinting for a new wave of growth and deeper reliance on TSMC.
In addition, Apple's new M2 series chips continue to introduce AI accelerator designs, and the M2 Pro and Max chips also use TSMC's second-generation 5nm process.
AMD has also been actively laying out AI-related products in recent years. In addition to its 7040 series chips, codenamed "Phoenix", which use TSMC's 4nm process and are scheduled to be introduced to the end market in March, emphasising that their performance can compete with Apple's M2 series chips, the most talked about is its "Alveo V70" AI chip. Alveo V70" AI chip, using TSMC's 5/6nm Chiplets design, is planned to be launched this year.
Research firm Counterpoint predicts that both AMD and Nvidia will focus on 4 and 5nm production for their new products, and are expected to launch CPU/GPU products using TSMC's 3nm family of processes after the second half of 2023. Due to the steady and rapid growth in demand, it is estimated that about half of TSMC's 5nm family production capacity will be taken up by AMD and Nvidia in 2023, while the other half will be taken up by Apple.
The industry estimates that this wave of three major customers AI chip rush orders are expected to allow TSMC's second quarter revenue to drop to about 3% sequentially. If inventory digestion progresses as expected, TSMC is expected to return to a high growth trajectory next year at the earliest and move towards its goal of $100 billion in annual revenue.
Earlier this month, TSMC pointed out in a press conference that, due to the impact of semiconductor inventory reconciliation, revenue in the first half of this year will be reduced to a high single-digit percentage (about 4% to 9%), while dollar-denominated revenue in the second half of the year is expected to grow compared to the same period last year, even if the global semiconductor industry faces a recession this year, TSMC's full-year results are still expected to grow slightly.

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