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Three giants duel 2 nanometers: TSMC plans to mass production in 2025, Samsung and Intel follow up

Update time : 2022-09-20 10:26:39

Following the first announcement of the 2nm process roadmap in June this year, the high-end process mass production schedule of the closely watched chip manufacturing giant TSMC has also been finalized recently.
According to public reports, TSMC’s advanced process is progressing smoothly. The 3-nanometer will be mass-produced in the second half of this year, the upgraded 3-nanometer process will be mass-produced in 2023, and the 2-nanometer is expected to be mass-produced in 2025.

As the world's most advanced chip process, TSMC 2nm adopts a new architecture for the first time. According to TSMC President Wei Zhejia in a previous technical forum, compared with the 3nm process, the 2nm process chip using the new architecture can increase the frequency by 10% to 15% at the same power consumption, and reduce the power consumption by 25% at the same frequency. to 30%. It is worth noting that 2nm will be a transition node in terms of TSMC's process. Since the traditional architecture process is close to the performance limit, TSMC's biggest rivals Samsung and Intel have already used the latest process architecture on 3nm, but or out of conservative considerations, TSMC still uses the traditional architecture process for 3nm, which makes TSMC's biggest rivals in the industry. The performance of the 3-nanometer chip has raised a lot of questions.
As the timetable for the latest process has been finalized, the industry believes that TSMC will further widen the gap with Samsung and Intel. Luo Guozhao, director of the China Laboratory of the CHIP Global Testing Center, told the reporter of China Business News that if TSMC's transformation efforts on the 2nm process are successful, it will further magnify its previous advantages in the accumulation of top customers, which also means The Matthew effect in the global chip manufacturing market may further intensify.
At the same time, as the top process enters the 2nm node, the three chip giants TSMC, Samsung and Intel will also usher in a new showdown.
According to public information, the land for the second-phase expansion plan of TSMC’s 2-nanometer factory has been finalized, and it is planned to start construction in the third quarter of this year; Samsung announced in July this year that it has begun preliminary production of 3-nanometer process chips using the GAAFET architecture, while the 2-nanometer GAAFET process The mass production time is also set in 2025; Intel previously promised to regain the leading position in chip manufacturing technology by 2025, and set the time target for 2nm production in 2024. It's worth noting that Intel also released a timetable for 1.8nm. According to Intel CEO Pat Kissinger, 1.8-nanometer will be launched six months ahead of schedule, that is, the market will be able to see its movement by the end of 2024.
Ji Wei previously told reporters that if Intel can launch the 1.8-nanometer process as scheduled, it will obviously catch up with the research and development progress of TSMC and Samsung, and even change the current competition pattern of "two heroes competing for hegemony". TrendForce data shows that as of the end of 2021, TSMC is the world's largest chip foundry, with a market share of nearly 52.9%, while Samsung ranks second with a market share of 17.3%. However, for the challenge initiated by Intel, Luo Guozhao believes that the feedback from the chip market often takes a long period of time, and after Intel was previously opened up by TSMC and Samsung in 10nm and 7nm, it also takes a long time to regain the trust of customers. Longer time, so catching up will be a long process. "At least in the current global foundry share, Intel is still behind rivals such as UMC and GlobalFoundries." He said. More importantly, in Luo Guozhao's view, TSMC's advantage has been established, and this advantage is based on the top process. TSMC's 2021 financial report shows that shipments of 5nm chips account for 20% of its total revenue, and 7nm accounts for 30%. "This means that the advanced process accounts for almost half of TSMC's revenue, and this ratio is terrible." Luo Guozhao said, this means that TSMC's advantage over its rivals in advanced processes is not only difficult to narrow, but may be further enlarged.
In addition, public information shows that TSMC's capital expenditure in the second half of 2022 will increase significantly, and it may exceed US$40 billion next year, of which 3nm wafer foundry from major customers such as Apple, Intel, Supermicro, and Nvidia from 2023 to 2025 Strong demand accounts for the majority.
In this context, TSMC is undoubtedly still firmly grasping the advantages of 2nm. Ji Wei believes that in the foreseeable future, Samsung and Intel will not be able to catch up with TSMC for the time being, and the pattern of one super and two strong in the global chip foundry market may continue.

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