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TSMC 5/4nm chip sales will increase by NT$100 billion this year

Update time : 2023-03-24 17:27:08

According to Taiwan Electronic Times, the semiconductor industry pointed out that the capacity utilization rate of TSMC's various processes has stopped falling one after another since Q2 and has gradually recovered, and Q3 is expected to rebound. Industry sources said TSMC's revenue growth this year is expected to be about the same as last year, but 5/4nm chip sales will increase by NT$100 billion. He pointed out that 28nm is the only process that TSMC still maintains 95% near full load; 16/12nm capacity utilization in the first quarter and the second half of the year is also about 80%.

Due to factors such as weak end-point markets such as smartphones and PCs, delays in customer product progress, and continued inventory write-offs, TSMC previously said that capacity utilization rates of 7nm and 6nm will decline from the high point in the first half of 2023. In the second half of 2023, demand for the 7nm family will slowly pick up. The market generally believes that since the 7nm family learning curve has passed, the proportion of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the whole year will be 22% and 27%, respectively, and the large decline in its capacity utilization rate will significantly affect revenue and profit performance.
It is understood that due to the continuous revision of orders and films by customers, TSMC has also experienced a significant decline in the capacity utilization rate of various processes since the fourth quarter of 2022. Among them, Fab 3/4 and Fab 5 of the 8-inch factory are estimated to have a capacity utilization rate in the second quarter. It will fall again to 70-75%, while Fab 6 and Fab 8 will remain at 75-80%. In terms of 12-inch fabs, the 40/45nm Fab 14A factory has a capacity utilization rate of about 80-85% in the first half of the year, while the 16/12nm Fab 14B factory has changed a lot, and there are still 75-80%, but it is expected to drop to 50% in May and June due to major customer corrections; the 28nm Fab 15A factory was close to full load in the first quarter, and fell to 85-90% in the second quarter; while the Fab 15B factory capacity utilization rate in the first half of the year was less
At present, the monthly production capacity of Fab 18A, which is mainly based on 5/4 nanometers, is about 130,000 pieces, and the capacity utilization rate in the first half of the year is about 75%; the monthly production capacity and capacity utilization rate of Fab 18B, which enters mass production at 3 nanometers in the first half of the year, are increasing month by month. The capacity utilization rate in the second quarter is about 80-85%, and the monthly production capacity is about 4.5-50,000 pieces. Wei Zhejia, president of TSMC, once said that due to the downturn in the PC and smartphone markets and the impact of customer inventory adjustment, TSMC's 7nm and 6nm capacity utilization rates are no longer at the highs of the past three years, and it is estimated that it will take several quarters to adjust. Demand is expected to pick up in the second half of this year.

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